Spain’s tourism sector, traditionally one of the main engines of the country’s economy, is showing clear signs of cooling, according to the latest data released by Exceltur. For 2025, overall tourism activity is now forecast to expand by 2.8%, a downgrade from the 3.3% projected in July and well below last year’s strong 5.5% growth.
Smaller Contribution to GDP
Exceltur estimates that tourism-related activity will account for 13.1% of Spain’s GDP this year, compared with the earlier forecast of 13.5%. “Tourism is no longer the main driver of the Spanish economy,” Exceltur Vice President Óscar Perelli said, stressing that the sector will not significantly exceed Spain’s overall GDP growth, which is expected to reach 2.6%.
Tourist Arrivals Struggling to Meet Expectations
Spain welcomed a record 94 million visitors in 2024, but this year the country is unlikely to reach the 100 million tourists projected by the World Travel and Tourism Council. By the end of August, arrivals stood at 66.8 million, up just 3.9% from the same period last year.
Tourism Minister Jordi Hereu admitted: “I don’t know if we will reach 100 million,” though he downplayed concerns, noting that overall tourist spending continues to grow.
Spending Growth Weakens
Despite the steady flow of visitors, spending growth across hotels, airlines, restaurants, and other businesses slowed considerably. Sales during the peak summer season rose by only 2.8%, compared with 6.3% in the same period of 2024. Exceltur now expects growth to decelerate further in the fourth quarter, to just 2%.
Mixed Performance by Source Markets
The slowdown has been largely attributed to weaker spending by visitors from Germany, France, Turkey, and the United States. However, the increase in travelers from the United Kingdom — representing 26.5% of all foreign arrivals — along with higher numbers from China and Poland, helped offset the decline. Domestic tourism remained unchanged from last year.
Conclusion
Tourism remains a vital sector for Spain, but the latest figures highlight a marked loss of momentum. Expectations for a new record in arrivals are unlikely to be met, and the industry’s share of economic growth is shrinking. While spending continues to rise, the overall outlook for 2025 suggests that Spain’s “flagship industry” will not have the same impact it enjoyed in previous years.
